The Platform Revolution: A Look into disruptive technologies

Next up at Structure 08 is Jonathan Yarmis AMR Research (VP of Disruptive Technologies). The session is titled, The Platform Revolution: A Look into disruptive technologies.

He has been in technology for more than 30 years. He was a sports broadcaster early in his career.

• What is this wave of disruption we see coming?
• The industry sometimes forgets its all about the user
• Users are figuring out cloud computing faster than enterprise.
  

Technology Trends

• Independent phenomena
• Social networks, virtual worlds and other community-based solutions.
• Social networking is not a new phenomena, it started with Eve.
• Mobility
• Cloud computing and stream computing
• Alternative business models
• Most often advertising supported
• Different license, revenue models
• Mutually reinforcing
  

Social Networking:

• We improve individual processes but don't think in terms of tasks
• How many CRM implementations have failed?
• They solved problems of CEO but not of sales people.
• Sales people job is inherently social.
  

Mobility

• The platform for the next generation and emerging markets.

PC, Mobile

• Size: 200 million units / year, 1.4 billion units per year
• Growth: 10% in a good year, 20% in a bad year
• Useful life: 3-5 years, 21 months
  

• Intersecting with social networks and location-based services
• Reaching new users and new uses.
• Even OLPC is not going to be the dominant platform in developing countries.
• The growth will be 2 billion units this year.
  

Cloud Computing:

• interesting phenomenon and dominant trend
• it won't encourage SaaS but Eaas (everything as a service)
• From a PC based, desktop client to services in the cloud
• Zero deployment
• Click-to-run
• Not just Saas but Eaas
• Sotware/applications
• Storage
• Content
• Music/video
• Data
• A real paradigm shift
• Exploding the opportunity vs. protecting your base.
• Really significant change.
  

Stream Computing:

• Data creation is expanding beyond our ability to store it all
• Growth estimates range from 50%/year to an order of magnitude
• Everything communicates
• Communicates everything
• 50 million photo uploads per day @ Facebook
• Where do we process it?
• How do we determine what's interesting
  

Business Models

• What's the value in social networks? It's peers
• Advertising changes the customer/vendor/user relationship
• Who will pay for end-user software and services?
• Moving from a license model to blended advertising-supported model
• What des this mean for the market?
• Economic value of peer relationships is going to become driving force
• Facebook's beacon: the holy grail of adveriting. Giant leap then step back, then go beyond where you were going.
  

User 2.0

• 1.0, 2.0
• structured, ad-hoc
• systems oriented, socially oriented
• process defined, user defined
• personal, collaborative,
• intra-enterprise, interenterprise (enterprise unaware or agnostic)
  

The New Enterprise Reality

• Users have more computing power at home than at work
• users are embracing disruptive technologies
• social networking
• video
  

He is showing classic innovators dilemma chart from http://web2.wsj2.com.

An economic downturn can accelerate cloud computing and mobile usage. Companies run after protecting their existing revenue base and not after exploring new opportunities.

Google's Android delayed because they are trying to please everyone. Apple wins for moving fast.